Economic stabilization with challenges

The European Freight Alliance of International Forwarders (ELVIS) AG has identified a stabilization of the economic situation in its current market report for the fourth quarter of 2025, albeit at a low level. While the gross domestic product (GDP) shows a slight increase, industrial production continues to decline. Although there are initial signs of a recovery in the truck transport market, these are set against the backdrop of structural challenges that limit the industry’s performance. The available capacities in cargo space are nearly fully utilized.

„In the short-term comparison, we see a certain stabilization. However, in the structural year-on-year comparison, it becomes clear that the economic foundation remains fragile,“ explains Nikolja Grabowski, board member of ELVIS AG. This assessment is supported by the figures for production in the manufacturing sector, which fell by 6.5 percent in December 2025 compared to the previous month and was simultaneously 1.1 percent below the level of the previous year. The mechanical engineering sector is particularly affected, recording a decline of 6.8 percent compared to the previous month and 4.8 percent compared to the same month last year, as well as the chemical industry with a decrease of 2.4 percent from the previous month and 4.9 percent from the same month last year.

ELVIS AG emphasizes that the structural problems in the transport market persist. Despite the slight recovery, the profitability of companies remains weak, which limits their ability to respond to sudden increases in demand. The nearly complete utilization of available cargo spaces could lead to bottlenecks in the future should demand unexpectedly rise.

www.elvis-ag.com