Escalation in Iran puts additional pressure on deep-sea shipping

The reliability of international container and deep-sea shipping has come under increasing criticism recently. Now, the military activities in Iran, spreading across the entire Middle East, add to the concerns. In particular, the Strait of Hormuz is affected. Shippers have already reported delays of several weeks, postponed departures, and unreliable arrival times.

By: Andreas Müller

Additional uncertainty arises from the recent escalation in the Middle East. Last Saturday, the USA and Israel conducted military strikes on Iranian targets, to which Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on targets in the region.

The military escalation has immediate effects on transport and logistics. Several countries temporarily closed their airspace, while shipping companies and energy firms acted more cautiously and suspended their activities in this region.

Passage through the Strait of Hormuz no longer secured

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, is particularly critical. Approximately 20% of the world’s traded oil is transported through this bottleneck, meaning any disruption can have direct consequences for global trade.

Following the onset of the attacks, some energy companies and tanker operators temporarily suspended or delayed transports through the region. Even before the current escalation, the area was considered one of the riskiest sea routes globally. Tensions between Iran and Western nations repeatedly led to security warnings for shipping and increased insurance premiums. This important waterway was already under pressure.

Should the conflict escalate further, additional delays in maritime traffic are likely. Connections between Europe and Asia, as well as energy trade, would be particularly affected. Experts see a potential disruption of the Strait of Hormuz as one of the greatest risks to global supply chains.

Shippers have been complaining for some time

The new crisis in Iran illustrates how significantly geopolitical conflicts can affect the reliability of international transport chains. For shippers, this means additional uncertainty in a market already burdened by delayed ship arrivals and unreliable schedules.

Shippers have previously reported delays of several weeks, postponed departures, and unreliable arrival times. These are no longer isolated cases. Industry figures show that delays have become commonplace today, with significant consequences for trade and industry.

A current example: Two containers were shipped from Antwerp in mid-December 2025, with a planned arrival in early February 2026. In reality, they were unloaded three weeks later. Another container remained at the departure port for weeks, causing its arrival to be delayed by almost a month. Such delays are now typical for many routes.

One in three containers delayed

The schedule reliability of container lines remains significantly below previous levels. According to analyses by the Danish research firm Sea-Intelligence, global schedule reliability in December 2025 was only about 62.8%. In 2024, reliability occasionally dropped to between 50 and 55%. On average, only about every second to third container arrives on time. Some shipping companies perform particularly poorly, with less than 50% of their ships arriving as scheduled. Recent evaluations also show that delays remain frequent and the situation has not yet fully normalized.

Geopolitics as the main cause

A central reason for the ongoing problems is the situation in the Red Sea. Since the end of 2023, many shipping companies have avoided the Suez Canal for security reasons and are instead sailing around the Cape of Good Hope. These detours not only extend transit times by several days or weeks but also disrupt schedules. At the same time, transport capacity is reduced because ships are at sea longer. The situation remains unstable. Even at the beginning of 2026, shipping companies are rerouting some services around Africa, as safe passages through the Red Sea are not always guaranteed. Experts believe that a complete return to normal operations will take time.

Ports as an additional bottleneck

In addition to geopolitical factors, operational issues also play a role. Delays often occur already at the departure ports when containers are not loaded on time or planned departures are postponed. Any delay affects the entire transport chain. Especially for connections with transshipments, even small delays can lead to several weeks of additional transit time. Smaller destination ports in Africa or on islands, which are only visited irregularly, are particularly affected. If a ship breaks down or a container misses the planned connection, this can quickly lead to significant delays.

Consequences for shippers

For shippers, the declining reliability has direct economic consequences. Longer transport times lead to higher capital binding and complicate supply chain planning. This is particularly critical for products with limited shelf life or seasonal sales. Companies must either build larger safety stocks or accept longer delivery times. The predictability of projects also suffers when delivery dates can no longer be reliably met.

ETA remains non-binding

A structural problem is that the Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) is usually legally non-binding. Unlike in air traffic or passenger transport, there are hardly any compensation regulations for delays in sea freight. Shippers often bear the risk of delays alone. Smaller companies, in particular, have few options to influence the situation.

Source* Sea Intelligence